China's Economic Boom

Typical projections, for example in a recent National Intelligence Estimate issued by the National Intelligence Council, a prestigious group within the U.S. intelligence community, are of the “more of the same” character: China is growing rapidly and can be expected to continue doing so. About all that one can do responsibly is list some of the factors that favor and some that disfavor China’s future growth.

-- Posner on China's rapid economic growth.

Its potential seems to be so limitless, after awakening from a slumber that lasted for centuries, that many are already forecasting that China will replace the United States during the 21st century as the leading economic power. Perhaps these forecasts will be correct-my crystal ball is very cloudy- but some cautionary comments are needed because we have heard that tune before.

-- Becker on China's rapid economic growth

Richard Posner's commentary and the commentary of his fellow blogger, Gary Becker, are lucid, brilliantly written and argued summaries of the current economic boom of China and the implications over the next 50 years. Because they're primarily economists, they focus more on economics rather than geopolitics... Well worth reading! (As is most stuff that Posner and Becker write, but it tends to be rather dry.. this isn't!). The comments at their site are also worth reading for some other intelligent discussions of the issue.

Worth posting in light of the whole "regional power broker" pose by John Winston Howard.